21Feb 2014 by johnastapleton

The rise and fall of welfare analysis in Canada

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As a lifelong student of social assistance caseloads in Canada, I looked forward to The Rise and Fall of Social Assistance Use in Canada, 1969-2012 by Ron Kneebone and Katherine White. My interest became even more avid when I read that the authors had cited some my data to come to their conclusions. The report is reasonably fair in its approach even if it does not mention or analyse the most important reasons why welfare caseloads have risen and fallen in Canada. But that was before I read the news release supporting the report which comes to remarkably different conclusions than the report itself. Its chiding tone and speculative welfare baiting made me wonder if the real news release supporting the report was somehow mislaid or ‘separated at birth’. I…
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21Jan 2014 by johnastapleton

A story of two poor seniors: Linda and Doris are the highest taxed people in Ontario

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A woman I am helping by the name of Linda Chamberlain[1] will be turning 65 in July 2014. I am helping her fill out her Old Age Security (OAS), Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) applications. She has given me permission to talk about her situation. Her income will go from about $700 a month from the Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) to about $1,400 a month from OAS, GIS and a little known program called the Guaranteed Annual Income System for the Aged (GAINS-A)[2]. That’s the good news. Linda is eligible for $100 a month in CPP Retirement benefits but we did not apply for her CPP. Many community members have asked why we refrained from applying. My answer is that her CPP would be clawed…
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29Dec 2013 by johnastapleton

Raise the Minimum wage to $21.90 an hour? Just like 100 years ago…

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In the first decades of the twentieth century, social justice was in the air. The UK brought in Old Age Pensions in 1908. The first minimum wage laws were brought in by Massachusetts in 1912[1]. BC and Manitoba adopted them in 1918.  Ontario and three other Provinces followed suit in 1920. Ontario is about to celebrate 100 years of workers’ compensation as it brought in the first Workers’ Compensation plan in 1914. Ontario announced its first widow’s pension in 1920 But one announcement in the USA was a real game-changer. On January 5, 1914, Henry Ford called reporters to the Ford Plant in Dearborn Michigan to hear an important announcement. “The Ford Motor Company, the greatest and most successful automobile manufacturing company in the world, will, on January 12, inaugurate…
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29Aug 2013 by johnastapleton

Bringing it all back home: Inflation, poverty lines and social assistance rates

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 “Well, he hands you a nickel …He hands you a dime….He asks you with a grin…If you're havin' a good time... Then he fines you every time you slam the door” Bob Dylan, Maggie’s Farm, Bringing it all back home, 1965 This is a short piece that won’t take too long to read. I was just looking at the poverty line for 1993 in Canada for a single person. I chose 1993 because that was the last time social assistance in Ontario kept pace with inflation and it marked the year after the last time that Statistics Canada rebased (recalculated) the Low income Cut off (LICO). The LICO in 1993 for a single person was $16,482. In 2013, the after-tax low income Measure – perhaps the best measure of poverty…
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30Jul 2013 by johnastapleton

Social assistance numbers in Ontario: Classic convergence or something else?

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Currently social assistance beneficiaries (men, women and children over population) hover between 6.5% and 6.6% of Ontario's population. We have remained at this percentage since May 2011 which means that caseloads are at an equilibrium point, a point of relative calm. Since the late 1980's, Ontario's unemployment rate has tended to converge with the percentage of beneficiaries in a post-recession period. It is an odd convergence but it has just reached its silver anniversary of 25 years (the relation first showed strongly in 1988) with May's unemployment rate of 7.3% and social assistance recipiency at 6.6% -- less than a single percentage point. (For details see http://openpolicyontario.com/presentations/.) In June 2009, unemployment stood at 9.6% and social assistance beneficiaries at 6.0% of population. This 3.6% difference in percentage points, interestingly enough, was the largest divergence…
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16Apr 2013 by johnastapleton

More thoughts on Ontario social assistance caseloads

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Ontario unemployment and SA rates 1981 to 2008, 2009 monthly to February 2013 (Excel file) All appears placid when looking at social assistance beneficiary totals (i.e. men, women and children) in Ontario in early 2013. Since March to May 2012 when several categories in Ontario Works reached post recession highs, the Ontario Works totals have receded by about 12,000 while ODSP has inched up by a similar number over the same period. This means that the percentage of Ontario's population in receipt of social assistance remains stubbornly at about 6.5%, slightly higher than similar periods following major post-war recessions. It would make it easier to understand and communicate if there was one 'magic bullet' that explained it all - but alas, there are many interwoven reasons that explain what's happening 'under…
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16Feb 2013 by johnastapleton

Understanding ‘Deathwatch’

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A deathwatch is nothing new. We had the real deal in 1975 when the world’s media literally waited for Spanish strongman Francisco Franco to die. Because of his slow decline and media interest, people would try to guess the day and the hour. Deathwatch became a parlour sport. Comedian Chevy Chase inaugurated the long running Weekend Update on ‘Saturday Night Live’ with his hilarious post-funeral news item: “Francisco Franco is still dead”. He milked it for months. But the deathwatch genre has evolved with the internet, smartphone technology and social media. Everyone can participate. It is highly entertaining and it no longer concerns real deaths of real people. Usually it is about companies, programs and individuals and their reputations, brand, and viability. But deathwatch follows a standard course and is…
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22Jan 2013 by johnastapleton

Stop wondering about under-subscription of benefits

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Getting the Learning Bond and Education Savings Grants is really hard for low-income parents I have become mildly annoyed by those who can’t figure out why the Canada Learning Bond (CLB) and the Canada Education Savings Grants (CESG) are undersubscribed among low-income parents. There really should be no mystery. All you have to do is shadow a low income parent (usually a woman) through the process and it all becomes clear. The following is a composite (mix and match) of my shadowing activity with four very motivated young lone parents who had heard about these benefits and wanted them for their children. I get to their places about 8:00 a.m. and ask if they are ready for it. There is the usual last minute kerfuffle about getting a child to…
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18Jan 2013 by johnastapleton

What’s wrong with earmarked debit cards and lower benefits for long terms social assistance recipients?

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What's wrong with debit cards for social assistance recipients?  Nothing as long as they are not earmarked! What's wrong with restrictions on debit cards e.g. no liquor or cellphones? 10 things that are wrong 1. The main reason is that the desired outcome of better spending of funds would simply not occur - no evidence is available that it would change spending patterns. 2. There would be a black market for cards just like food stamps in the US - they would be sold off at discounts driving taxpayer dollars into the hands of  card dealers. Is that what the taxpayer wants? 3. Restricting inadequate funds for necessities would mean that people may not be able to pay the rent and therefore get evicted 4. A system with 800 rules would be…
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19Jun 2012 by johnastapleton

Social assistance recipients in Ontario

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I have written a monthly newsletter for years  about social assistance caseloads. I was asked if it is face-bookable or tweet-able. With this post, I am going to try to make that possible. It is an exciting time because social assistance recipiency ( if there is such a word) is at the crossroads. March has traditionally marked the high point in social assistance caseloads. And following the 1980's and 1990's recessions, caseloads had multi-year peaks in March 1983 and March 1994 in Ontario . The file is here: Ontario unemployment and SA rates 1981 to 2008, 2009 monthly to April 2012 (1) Will March 2012 will be the high water mark? There are no safe bets here. But few months have shown a retreat  like April 2012 in all OW categories of singles, couples, and lone…
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